Irish Unification Plebiscite Should Not Become 'Another Brexit', Analysts Caution

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."